Let us get to the big picture on India-Russia bilateral relations upfront at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin holds the 15th Indo-Russian annual summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Thursday.
First, let us look at the plus points.
Since 1971, no foreign country has been as helpful and as crucial for India as Russia has been. If India won the 1971 War with Pakistan that led to dismemberment of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh, the credit goes to the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and her game changer of a treaty with the then Soviet Union.
The most important clause of the 20-year Indo-Soviet treaty was that an attack on India will be treated as an attack on the Soviet Union and vice versa.
It was mainly because of this treaty that India was eventually able to dismember Pakistan and give birth to a new nation Bangladesh, the erstwhile East Pakistan.
Imagine the consequences of an undivided Pakistan for India! Had Bangladesh not been liberated it would have led to India’s own dismemberment given the fact that much of India’s northeast is Bangladesh/East Pakistan-locked.
India under Indira Gandhi was able to pull it off because of the friendship treaty with the Soviet Union despite the Americans deploying their seventh fleet on the Indian shores in an intimidating fashion.
The Russian pluses for India do not stop here. The Russians bailed out Indians after the two Pokhran nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998. They gave India the cryogenic engines at the right time and sustained Indian nuclear energy as well as strategic programmes running.
The Russians helped Indians with weaponry and technology at a time when the US-led international community had cracked down on India after its nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998. They helped India in a big way in the crucial space sector also. Of course, the Russians did so at a price but their support to India was invaluable at a time when India was completely isolated by the US-led international community.
Now let us come to the minuses in the Indo-Russian relationship.
From a stage to contributing over 90 per cent of weapon systems in Indian arsenal, the Russians today have slipped to just 60 per cent. The United States has already overtaken Russia as India’s biggest arms exporter. Israel is threatening to push Russia even further down to the number three spot anytime soon.
Why has this happened? Russia alone is to be responsible for this sad state of affairs mainly because of its repeated delays in completing projects, cost-overruns and supply of inferior defence equipment.
This has been happening for years. The exasperated Indian officials complained to their Russian counterparts about this but the Russians did not amend their ways.
In the meanwhile, India changed its defence procurement policy several times, each time making the competition for defence imports stiffer and the Russians could not simply cope with the new policies promulgated by India.
This was the biggest let down from Russia as far as the Indians were concerned.
The next big undoing in the India-Russia discourse has been Russia’s dalliances with Pakistan, India’s arch-rival. India understands the strategic needs of Russia in getting more friendly with Pakistan in view of the Russian concerns over Afghanistan in the coming months when American/NATO troops thin down their presence in Afghanistan.
But where was the need for Russia to sell attack helicopters to Pakistan? Yes, the Russians have sold such weapons to Pakistan earlier but that was way back in the 60’s!
Moreover, even if Russia was to sell attack helicopters to Pakistan it could have made it a one-off gesture. Where was the need for Russia to formalize a defence pact with Pakistan?
The Russian actions are viewed by India as ill-timed and do not inspire much confidence in New Delhi.
However, in this writer’s view Russia is enormously important for India and needless to say India too is equally important for Russia. The two age-old strategic partners must not allow their bilateral ties to go astray.
This is despite the fact that Russia is fast getting into the Chinese orbit, thanks largely to the western sanctions. This is not a welcome sign for India.
India would like to see a strong and stable Russia. It would be in India’s strategic interests to see Russia regaining its past glory and emerge as a strong and effective counterfoil to the West.
Russia is waging several big ticket battles simultaneously on the economic, political, diplomatic and military fronts. But today’s strategic calculus is forcing Russia to be dependent on China increasingly.
It is a worrying sign for India. Russia’s tilt towards China is largely because of economic considerations.
It would be in India’s long-term strategic interest to contribute its might to bolster the Russian economy which is in the grip of recession and western sanctions
